Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on the day Donald Trump became president. Photograph: Brendan Mcdermid/Reuters
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hasn’t waited around to see what a Trump presidency might mean for US monetary policy – it cut its base rate 25 basis points to a record low of 1.75% this morning.
The move was expected and is the third cut this year. It’s driven partly by a need to get the NZ dollar down to help the country’s huge dairy industry.
Governor Graeme Wheeler said the rate-setters had met on Thursday to discuss whether the cut was still needed in the wake of Trump’s win. They decided it was but pushed back on expectations of yet another reduction soon. He said:
This is an interesting chart. Wednesday saw one of the biggest drops in volatility ever recorded as the markets quickly put their concerns behind them and went into risk-on mode.
Volatility Index has fallen 36% thus far this week, the 3rd largest 3-day decline in history (more than post-Brexit, now 5th on list) $VIX pic.twitter.com/tmbm2YyIek
But as with Australia, it’s not clear where this is going. A Trump presidency promises a more aggressive US trading position which the markets have implicitly welcomed. But not everyone can be winners here, can they?
China is the obvious loser in Asia if, let’s say, Trump tries to force Apple to make its iPhones in the US instead of Shenzhen and Shangahi.
Employees assembling electronics on the assembly line at a Foxconn plant in Shenzhen, Guangdong province. Photograph: Bloomberg/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Here’s a snippet from Larry Elliott’s piece:
Beijing would have two choices. It might take an emollient line, promising to increase direct investment into the US as a way of supporting Trump’s attempt to rebuild the American economy.
More likely, though, China would adopt an aggressive, nationalistic stance. Beijing is not without economic weapons, since it has amassed a vast stock of US Treasury bonds in recent years, the proceeds of its trade surplus with America. Beijing could meet Trump’s threat with one of its own: to dump US assets. A tit-for-tat trade war, in which China puts tariffs on US exports, could not be ruled out either.
But as Chris Weston from IG says in his morning note, these concerns appear for another day as markets focus on the upside:
The market in Japan has opened very strongly with the Nikkei rising more than 6%, reversing the huge losses of Wednesday.
The Kospi in Seoul is also up.
The Aussie is trading at US76.50c this morning.
The Aussie dollar Photograph: Bloomberg/Bloomberg via Getty Images
But experts say it’s hard to say where it will go from here given the mixed bag of signals out of a Trump win.
Huge lead from Australia this morning. The ASX/S&P200 is up nearly 3% and resource and financial stocks have led the way. The iron ore producer Fortescue is the top riser at well over 10.6% but Macquarie and BHP have also shown big gains.
My colleague Melissa Davey has just filed this report on the morning’s surge.
Meanwhile, Chris Weston at IG in Melbourne has this:
There’s a ‘Trump turnaround’ in 1st hour of trade on the Australian share market #ASX200 +3.0% to 5,311. $BHP +8.6% $BLS +12.0% @ABCNews24
Well, that didn’t turn out quite how it was expected to – on a number of levels. The surprise of Trump’s win looked like leading to market meltdown across the world. But it didn’t, thanks in part it seems to Trump’s conciliatory speech, proving that investors hate uncertainty more than anything. The promise of a smooth handover of power, a united Congress, tax cuts and a huge infrastructure spending boost was enough to turn red screens green.
A screen shows the big gains made by the Dow Jones industrial average in New York on Wednesday, defying predictions of a huge selloff. Photograph: Brendan Mcdermid/Reuters
Here’s how they finished in the US and Europe
- The Dow Jones up 1.4% to 18,590 points.
- The S&P 500 up 1.1% to 21,163.
- The Nasdaq up 1.1% to 5,251.
- FTSE100 up 1% to 6,911.84
- Dax up 1.56% to 10,646
In Australia the market has already taken that lead and opened up by nearly 3%. Can it be sustained?
Here’s one informed verdict. Michael McCarthy at CMC Markets in Sydney, said:
The stunning turn in sentiment suggests there is now a consensus building that much of the policy announced during the campaign was a sales pitch rather than a commitment to act. Investors ignored the potential for damage to international trade and growth prospects and focussed on Republican control of both houses of Congress as well as the White House. This offers the prospect of reform that could stimulate the US economy. However, last night’s action may be as good as it gets for markets for some time. Policy uncertainty and populist agendas rarely lead to sustainable economic growth.
There’s much to look at and talk about. But in the meantime start with our economics editor Larry Elliott’s examination of what a Trump win might mean for the global economy.